I have to admit honestly: I’m somewhat at a loss for words after yesterday’s performance. Not because Germany was eliminated – losses are part of sports. But because this team once again demonstrated exactly what has plagued them for years: too little tempo, too little courage, too little passion, and far too little charisma. After 120 minutes, one feeling remained with me: shock. And the sobering realization that history seems to repeat itself time and time again. Enough of the nostalgia – the tournament continues, and there is still plenty to bet on.
Potti’s Playoff Compass
The idea was actually simple: Follow the DACH teams, cheer along, and hope for a big win. Unfortunately, Germany decided to throw a wrench in that plan early on. A bold sweep of the eraser over the tournament tree – and DACH became just ACH.From now on, my fingers are crossed for Austria and Switzerland. Let’s see if this ACH duo can keep the German-speaking colors flying a little longer.In the attached graphic, AI has taken the liberty of predicting the outcomes of the remaining games in the first knockout round. I’ll just leave its tips there for comparison. Unfortunately, the forecast for Austria is not very encouraging, though Switzerland would at least move on to the next round. From an Austrian perspective, we can only hope that artificial intelligence has miscalculated this time.
Round of 16: Brazil vs. Japan 2:1
Brazil came away with a blue eye. Especially in the first half, Japan put the record world champions in serious trouble with their dangerous counters and rightly took a 1:0 lead. Only after the break did the Seleção take more and more control. Casemiro equalized with a header, before the substitute Gabriel Martinelli scored the much-celebrated winner in the fifth minute of stoppage time. Japan was just moments away from a sensational win and departs with pride and heads held high. Brazil is in the round of 16, but they also know that they will need to significantly up their game if they want to survive a few more rounds here.
Round of 16: Germany vs. Paraguay 1:1 (3:4 on penalties)
I have to honestly say: The elimination doesn’t hit me emotionally as much anymore. I have unfortunately lost my identification with this national team bit by bit over the years. What leaves me shocked and truly appalled is the manner in which this team presented itself.Germany has a squad that is better than Paraguay on every position individually – and yet everything feels completely clueless, sluggish, and predictable. Ball possession without tempo, crosses without recipients, attacks without surprises. It felt like every spectator in the stadium had a hint of what would happen next, five seconds in advance. Paraguay didn’t need to play dazzling football. Passion, discipline, and a clear plan were enough to pose huge problems for Germany.Of course, we can point to the VAR that supposedly disallowed a legitimate goal for Jonathan Tah in extra time. That was certainly bitter. But anyone who seriously thinks that a possible referee mistake over 120 minutes can mask this performance is taking the easy way out. A top team seals the deal beforehand and does not rely on the video referee to draw the right line.For years, after every major tournament, a new beginning has been proclaimed. New players, new ideas, new coach – the headlines change, the result remains frighteningly similar. 2018 group stage. 2022 group stage. Now the exit in the round of 16. At some point, one has to accept that these are not operational accidents, but a pattern.Congratulations to Paraguay. They absolutely deserve to move on. The South Americans played with heart, passion, and a clear tactical idea. Germany, on the other hand, did not come across as a team that desperately wants to become world champions. And that, for me, is the biggest disappointment of this evening. Not the elimination. But the realization that this team once again fails to ignite any emotions and remains guilty of the belief that they can achieve something great together.
Round of 16: Netherlands vs. Morocco 1:1 (2:3 on penalties)
What a thriller! The Netherlands thought they were on their way to the round of 16 after Cody Gakpo’s late goal, but Morocco refused to be defeated. Deep into stoppage time, Issa Diop headed in the much-celebrated 1:1, forcing Oranje into extra time. There, both teams gave no quarter, before the decision – just like between Germany and Paraguay before – had to be made from the penalty spot.In the penalty shootout, Morocco held their nerves better. Goalkeeper Yassine Bounou became the match-winner once again and saved the decisive penalty before Ismael Saibari calmly converted the final penalty. The Netherlands depart the tournament despite a generally decent performance, while Morocco proves their tremendous mentality once again and rightfully advances to the round of 16.
Tuesday, June 30 – the MatchupsRound of 16: Ivory Coast vs. Norway – 7 PM
For me, this is probably the most evenly matched game of the entire round of 16. On one side is an incredibly athletic and physically strong Ivory Coast that has impressed so far with tempo, tenacity, and teamwork. On the other side is Norway – and thus a team that can make the difference at any moment with just one player: Erling Haaland. The striker has already scored four goals and is in top form. He is supported by Martin Ødegaard, who directs the Norwegian offense with his precise passes.However, the Ivory Coast has enough quality in defense to neutralize Haaland at least for periods and possesses enormous offensive weapons themselves in Amad Diallo, Nicolas Pépé, and the lightning-fast Yan Diomande. I expect a shootout with plenty of chances on both sides.My tip: The bookmakers see Norway as fairly clear favorites. I, on the other hand, see it as a real 50:50 game, where in the end – I admit, a bit of sympathy plays into my tip – Norway narrowly triumphs 3:2 and advances to the round of 16.
Round of 16: France vs. Sweden – 11 PM
France enters this duel as the clear favorite. The Swedes will defend passionately as usual and physically hold their ground, but therein lies their greatest challenge. The French offense possesses so much tempo and creativity that it can throw any defense into chaos. Mbappé, Dembélé, and Olise will present the Swedish defense with unsolvable tasks.My tip: Although Sweden fights valiantly, they can’t hold back the force of the French team. France wins decisively 3:0 and will show in the next round how to play against Paraguay.
Round of 16: Mexico vs. Ecuador – 3 AM
This duel is likely to be much closer than many expect. Both teams thrive on their intensity, enormous running capacity, and impressive mentality. While Mexico often wields the finer footballing blade, Ecuador brings plenty of physicality and fighting spirit. Small details could make the difference in the end.My tip: For a long time, everything seems to be heading for extra time, but driven by a massive atmosphere in the stands, Mexico throws everything forward in the closing stages. The greater experience in knockout matches ultimately tilts the balance. Mexico narrowly wins 2:1 and advances to the last 16.
Round of 16: Brazil vs. Japan 2:1
Brazil came away with a blue eye. Especially in the first half, Japan put the record world champions in serious trouble with their dangerous counters and rightly took a 1:0 lead. Only after the break did the Seleção take more and more control. Casemiro equalized with a header, before the substitute Gabriel Martinelli scored the much-celebrated winner in the fifth minute of stoppage time. Japan was just moments away from a sensational win and departs with pride and heads held high. Brazil is in the round of 16, but they also know that they will need to significantly up their game if they want to survive a few more rounds here. Round of 16: Germany vs. Paraguay 1:1 (3:4 on penalties)
I have to honestly say: The elimination doesn’t hit me emotionally as much anymore. I have unfortunately lost my identification with this national team bit by bit over the years. What leaves me shocked and truly appalled is the manner in which this team presented itself.Germany has a squad that is better than Paraguay on every position individually – and yet everything feels completely clueless, sluggish, and predictable. Ball possession without tempo, crosses without recipients, attacks without surprises. It felt like every spectator in the stadium had a hint of what would happen next, five seconds in advance. Paraguay didn’t need to play dazzling football. Passion, discipline, and a clear plan were enough to pose huge problems for Germany.Of course, we can point to the VAR that supposedly disallowed a legitimate goal for Jonathan Tah in extra time. That was certainly bitter. But anyone who seriously thinks that a possible referee mistake over 120 minutes can mask this performance is taking the easy way out. A top team seals the deal beforehand and does not rely on the video referee to draw the right line.For years, after every major tournament, a new beginning has been proclaimed. New players, new ideas, new coach – the headlines change, the result remains frighteningly similar. 2018 group stage. 2022 group stage. Now the exit in the round of 16. At some point, one has to accept that these are not operational accidents, but a pattern.Congratulations to Paraguay. They absolutely deserve to move on. The South Americans played with heart, passion, and a clear tactical idea. Germany, on the other hand, did not come across as a team that desperately wants to become world champions. And that, for me, is the biggest disappointment of this evening. Not the elimination. But the realization that this team once again fails to ignite any emotions and remains guilty of the belief that they can achieve something great together.Round of 16: Netherlands vs. Morocco 1:1 (2:3 on penalties)
What a thriller! The Netherlands thought they were on their way to the round of 16 after Cody Gakpo’s late goal, but Morocco refused to be defeated. Deep into stoppage time, Issa Diop headed in the much-celebrated 1:1, forcing Oranje into extra time. There, both teams gave no quarter, before the decision – just like between Germany and Paraguay before – had to be made from the penalty spot.In the penalty shootout, Morocco held their nerves better. Goalkeeper Yassine Bounou became the match-winner once again and saved the decisive penalty before Ismael Saibari calmly converted the final penalty. The Netherlands depart the tournament despite a generally decent performance, while Morocco proves their tremendous mentality once again and rightfully advances to the round of 16.
Tuesday, June 30 – the MatchupsRound of 16: Ivory Coast vs. Norway – 7 PM
For me, this is probably the most evenly matched game of the entire round of 16. On one side is an incredibly athletic and physically strong Ivory Coast that has impressed so far with tempo, tenacity, and teamwork. On the other side is Norway – and thus a team that can make the difference at any moment with just one player: Erling Haaland. The striker has already scored four goals and is in top form. He is supported by Martin Ødegaard, who directs the Norwegian offense with his precise passes.However, the Ivory Coast has enough quality in defense to neutralize Haaland at least for periods and possesses enormous offensive weapons themselves in Amad Diallo, Nicolas Pépé, and the lightning-fast Yan Diomande. I expect a shootout with plenty of chances on both sides.My tip: The bookmakers see Norway as fairly clear favorites. I, on the other hand, see it as a real 50:50 game, where in the end – I admit, a bit of sympathy plays into my tip – Norway narrowly triumphs 3:2 and advances to the round of 16.Round of 16: France vs. Sweden – 11 PM
France enters this duel as the clear favorite. The Swedes will defend passionately as usual and physically hold their ground, but therein lies their greatest challenge. The French offense possesses so much tempo and creativity that it can throw any defense into chaos. Mbappé, Dembélé, and Olise will present the Swedish defense with unsolvable tasks.My tip: Although Sweden fights valiantly, they can’t hold back the force of the French team. France wins decisively 3:0 and will show in the next round how to play against Paraguay.Round of 16: Mexico vs. Ecuador – 3 AM
This duel is likely to be much closer than many expect. Both teams thrive on their intensity, enormous running capacity, and impressive mentality. While Mexico often wields the finer footballing blade, Ecuador brings plenty of physicality and fighting spirit. Small details could make the difference in the end.My tip: For a long time, everything seems to be heading for extra time, but driven by a massive atmosphere in the stands, Mexico throws everything forward in the closing stages. The greater experience in knockout matches ultimately tilts the balance. Mexico narrowly wins 2:1 and advances to the last 16.