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Potti's World Cup Diary

Potti’s World Cup Diary #3: The Bookmakers Are Still Laughing

So far, this World Cup is not going well for me from a betting standpoint. After four games, my personal record is a modest 1:3. One could argue that the tournament is still young. But it’s also fair to say that the bookmakers are currently (still) sleeping much more peacefully than I am.It is also noticeable that the supposedly attractive matches seem to take place when normal people are already fast asleep. The rather tedious matches are dutifully served at 9 PM, while the savory treats flicker across the screens at three or four in the morning. So, if you want to see the really interesting duels, you need less football knowledge right now and more of a stable coffee machine.On the sports side, the tournament’s start could hardly have gone better for the hosts. Mexico won its opening match, Canada earned the first World Cup point in its history, and the USA surprisingly dismantled Paraguay with a clear 4:1. After three games, the three host nations are still undefeated. This is of course priceless for the atmosphere in the stadiums and around the tournament.Respect also goes to Mauricio Pochettino. The US national coach promised President Donald Trump that the Americans will be in the running for the title. That either shows remarkable confidence or remarkable courage. Because one thing is certain: Donald Trump is not exactly known for his calm reactions when promises are not kept.In this spirit: The World Cup is picking up speed. Let the games begin.Group B: Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina 1:1 Canada secured its first World Cup point in its opening game of Group B. The 1:1 against Bosnia and Herzegovina wasn’t exactly a football revelation, but in the end, it was an acceptable result for both teams. Bosnia took the lead through Jovo Lukic in the 21st minute. Canada was subsequently the more active team but squandered numerous chances. The historic moment was ultimately provided by substitute Cyle Larin, who scored the deserved equalizer in the 78th minute and provided the co-host with its first World Cup point ever. In the end, both teams can live well with the draw. However, neither Canada nor Bosnia and Herzegovina will make the big headlines in this tournament. My gut feeling tells me that both teams will likely spend the second week of July in front of the TV rather than on the training grounds of a World Cup venue.Group D: USA vs. Paraguay 4:1 So much for my outsider tip on Paraguay. The Americans made it clear in their first World Cup game that they have higher aspirations than just taking a few nice host photos. In front of over 70,000 spectators in Los Angeles, Mauricio Pochettino’s team swept past the Paraguayans with a 4:1 victory, leading comfortably 3:0 at halftime. The match winner was Folarin Balogun with two goals, while Christian Pulisic shone as the playmaker. Especially remarkable: Paraguay conceded only five goals in the entire South America qualification across 18 games. Against the USA, they had already conceded three by halftime. Where exactly the Paraguayan defense has lost its usually impressive stability between Asunción and Los Angeles will likely remain their secret.My prediction for a 1:0 victory for Paraguay was about as successful as a snowman in Houston. Betting record after four games: 1 correct, 3 wrong.My Look at the Upcoming Matches Those hoping for a major surprise or another VALUE ALARM today will be disappointed. I expect the favorites to prevail in all four matches. Although my previous predictions likely do not inspire boundless confidence. Therefore, the most exciting question of the evening may not be who wins, but whether I will make it to the end of game number two. The odds are currently about 50:50.Group B: Qatar vs. Switzerland – 9:00 PM Although Qatar has qualified for a World Cup for the first time and has made significant progress in recent years, the quality gap to Switzerland is simply too wide. The Swiss have much more experience at the highest level, regularly reached the knockout stage in recent World Cups, and are nearly better positioned in all team positions. Of course, football often writes its own stories. And yes, Qatar surprisingly won the only previous duel between the two nations in 2018 with 1:0. But this time I don’t believe in a surprise. Switzerland will control the game, showcase its individual class, and ultimately take home the three points. My prediction: Qatar – Switzerland 0:2. The first win for the Nati.Group C: Brazil vs. Morocco – 12:00 AM For many observers, this is the most attractive duel of the entire first World Cup match day. While Brazil is once again among the top favorites for the title, Morocco arrives with the confidence of a World Cup semi-finalist from 2022. The Brazilians enter the match as favorites. With Vinícius Júnior, Raphinha, Marquinhos, and Neymar, the Seleção has plenty of individual class. Additionally, there is a new man at the helm, Carlo Ancelotti, who is tasked with leading the team to its first World Cup title since 2002 and bringing the sixth star to the jersey. However, that task may not be as simple as it seems. Morocco impressively demonstrated at the 2022 World Cup that they belong to the extended world elite. With players like Achraf Hakimi, Brahim Díaz, and Noussair Mazraoui in the squad, who are active at the highest European levels week after week, many experts consider Morocco to be the toughest possible opponent that Brazil could have faced from the second pot. Still, I do not believe in a surprise. Morocco will put up a fight and make life difficult for the Brazilians. In the end, however, the greater individual quality should prevail.My prediction: Brazil wins 2:0 and starts successfully on the journey for the sixth World Cup title.Group C: Haiti vs. Scotland – 3:00 AM For both nations, this match is already directional. In a group with Brazil and Morocco, the loser is likely to feel the pressure early on, while the winner can dream of the Round of 16. Haiti has surprisingly qualified strongly for the World Cup and is back on the biggest football stage for the first time since 1974. The Caribbean nation impressed on its way to the World Cup with some very solid performances and arrives with plenty of confidence.Scotland, on the other hand, is celebrating its first World Cup participation since 1998. With players like Scott McTominay, Andy Robertson, and John McGinn, the Brits have significantly more international experience. I also firmly expect that there will be at least 20,000 Scots in kilts and with bagpipes in the stands. That alone should almost provide a small home advantage at a World Cup.My prediction: Haiti leads 1:0, but in the end, the Scots win 3:1 and move closer to their big goal of reaching the knockout stage.Group D: Australia vs. Turkey – 6:00 AM For this match, I will actually set my alarm. And for those who know me, at six in the morning, I’m usually on my way to the bathroom, not to the TV. In the balanced Group D (with the USA and Paraguay), the outcome of each individual match is crucial. I need to be there. The Australians are now regulars at World Cups and are participating in the finals for the sixth consecutive time. The Socceroos are tough to play against, physically robust, and often perform better in major tournaments than many experts expect. However, my sympathies in this match lie more with Turkey. One, I fondly remember the sensational third place at the 2002 World Cup. Two, I’m really impressed by the current generation. With Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Kenan Yıldız, and especially Real Madrid’s jewel Arda Güler, the team boasts plenty of creativity and individual class. I expect a close game, but I believe that the Turks possess slightly more offensive quality. Therefore, my prediction is a 2:1 victory for Turkey. And who knows: perhaps we will already witness the first major World Cup moment from Arda Güler here.
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